Revolutions and insurgencies Essay Example for Free

Revolutions and insurgencies Essay Today and Tomorrow – 4th and 5th Generation Warfare The generational theory of warfare indicates a near orderly transformation of wars from the Napoleonic era to the present day, some what neatly divided into four eras. Levee en masse and the concept of nations at wars led to what is referred to as 1st generation warfare. On the other hand an age dominated by firepower spanning the First World War denotes the 2nd generation of wars, while 3rd Generation warfare includes and transcends the Second World War and was dominated by maneuver. Today’s warfare is the next generation of wars which are targeted at the opponents political will and not necessarily the military and are fought by a series of networks operating in tandem, political, social, economic and military. This era is being increasingly referred to as 4th Generation wars. (Hammes, 2004). 4th Generation warfare is one in which monopoly of the state over war has been broken by the non state actor, be it the Al Qaeda, the Tamil Tigers, Hezbollah or the Taliban. In some cases the state and the non state actor seem to be acting in tandem as the recent war in the Middle East denotes where the Hezbollah was considered by many as a proxy of Syria and Iran. This is one of the defining paradigms of 4th Generation war where the difference between the state and the non state seems to have been blurred. (Lind, 2004). Martin von Creveld also tends to support the premise set out hitherto fore by stating that unconventional wars waged against conventional forces are increasingly becoming the order of the day. (Creveld, 1991). The wars of the future are as per Creveld (1991) low intensity conflicts where tempo and intensity will be below that of conventional wars. Armies would increasingly have to tailor their resources to combat these types of conflicts as per Creveld (1991). This generational shift will evidently explain the emerging continuum of insurgencies which have transformed from massed revolutions of the 1940’s to network distributed conflicts of the 21st Century. This new revolution is thus replicating 4th and some would even argue 5th Generation warfare which is fought by non states and small groups, is driven by fundamentalist ideology and is technology fixated. The defining form of 4th Generation warfare is that the military has perhaps lost its primacy in waging wars and the state undoubtedly so. (Hammes, 2004). Thus the centre of gravity as is commonly understood in warfare and in the Clausewitzian trinity is no longer the military but the will of the people and the state to fight. (Hammes, 2004). Peters (1999) has also indicated these shifting trends where the American military which has invested so much in conventional weapons may find these irrelevant in wars of the future. This being the central theme, thus the targets become extremely diffused and are not necessarily military but include a series of possible networks within society such as political, economic, military, social and so on thereby ultimately impacting the mind of the populace to give up the fight. The Hezbollah and the Taliban have very well understood this theme. In the recent Lebanon war, Hezbollah rockets rained on civilian targets while the guerrillas were more attuned to take Israeli soldiers as prisoners. The Taliban is even more suave attempting to undermine the resolve of Western forces to wage war in Afghanistan by tactics such as kidnapping and hostage taking forcing states to accede to its demands. The United Nations is now planning to evolve a policy response for hostage taking such has been the impact of these unconventional means. The tactics used by the 4th Generation warrior to achieve his ends are innovative. The use of the small group is primary to success. In some cases even an individual terrorist can be used effectively to break the political will of the government and the people. The Madrid bombings would denote the most significant example of this new phenomenon which by targeting a large population and causing extensive casualties, the will of the government to fight a conventional war was effectively negated. The relevance of large groups operating in small nodes is also evident with Al Qaeda whose leaders have succeeded in remaining elusive for over half a decade even as the best technology and manpower seeks out Bin Laden across the globe achieving their aims with impunity across the globe. As per Creveld (1991), modern armed forces were organizationally and equipment wise not perfectly suited to fight such a war. Peters (1999) has also indicated that modern arms and armament may not be relevant to the wars of the future. What is of concern however is that conflict trends are already proliferating towards the next stage, 5th generation wars though this is still a disputed concept. Lind (2004) for instance argues that we have not yet fully assimilated the contours of 4th Generation wars, hence contemplating the next generation may be too premature. What then emerges is perhaps, â€Å"Four and a half generation of warfare† where the state is attempting to remain relevant in the years ahead. Others as Lane (Nd) are not so sure, they presage the diffusion of technology empowering individuals in the same way as states in the first three generations have been or the non state in the fourth one. What is remarkable about these postulates is that these are increasingly being made by non military thinkers. Ideology has a central role in 4th Generation warfare. Thus dogma is used to effectively link a large group of people spread across the globe. The aim of the warrior may not be per se a change in ideology itself, it would be merely to use emotional strings in beliefs, in religion, societies and governments to evoke mass reactions thereby achieving the central aim of the perpetrator to create discord. (Lane, Nd). The use of technology is very elucidative. It is used to leverage advantages of a networked organization, scalability of conflict, exploit information and create a borderless world. (Lane, Nd). The impact of media and technology would be evident with the video tapes of Osama Bin Laden regularly promulgated across the globe giving a message of blood and mayhem to followers of the faith. Technology and information is used as a medium to wage war as also as a target of conflict in 5th generation warfare. (Fifth Generation Warfare, 2005). The Cell phone for instance is a means of communication as well as a trigger rigged to remotely explode bombs in far off places. The adaptation of technology by fifth generation warriors is much faster than that of state warriors. The above survey would indicate that insurgency and revolutionary wars are increasingly replicating 4th and 5th Generation warfare fought by non states and small groups, driven by fundamentalist ideology and supported by technology. Thus as Wilcox and Wilson (2002) indicate warriors of the future will be organized along small independent action forces (SIAF) or cells without any need for a logistics base and with psychological rather than physical goals. We should not be surprised if both these generations exist simultaneously, where wars are increasingly fought by a triad of states, non states and empowered small groups. By seeing through these paradigms can we be better prepared to withstand its rigors.